March Madness: NBA style
Basketball Betting Lines
03/17/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When watching the NCAA Tournament, I'm not
holding my breath waiting for Cinderella to appear like most of America.
Nope, I'm all about the next level and trying to project which players have
the athletic skills and basketball smarts to flourish in the NBA, and which
ones are the frauds, manufactured in the Dick Vitale/Jay Bilas ESPN-generated
hype-machine (think J.J. Redick).
If you are looking for talent, it's usually a good idea to find John Calipari,
the coach that mentored both Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans at Memphis for a
season before they burst onto the NBA scene.
Calipari may have fled Beale Street for the blue grass of Kentucky but he
remains the best recruiter in all of college basketball, and his new one-year
wonder is point guard John Wall, who figures to be the No. 1 overall selection
in June's draft.
The 6-foot-4 Wall has the size and physical skills to become an elite player
early in his NBA career. His speed and athleticism are strikingly similar to
Rose, and few guards can finish above the rim like Wall. One scout told me Wall
has an Allen Iverson-like extra gear, with five more inches of height.
Kentucky power forward Patrick Patterson, a junior, may also be a lottery
pick. At 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds, Patterson already possesses an NBA-body and
has the demeanor you want in a post player, a rare thing in today's college
game. Patterson actually enjoys contact and seeks to bang inside, like a far
more skilled Charles Oakley.
Georgia Tech doesn't bring the same cachet to the dance as UK but they sure
bring talent and like the Wildcats figure to have two NBA Lottery players in
forwards Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal.
Favors, a freshman, is a sure-fire top five pick and will remind you a lot of
Al Horford. Like the Atlanta big man, Favors is only 6-foot-9 but is an
explosive leaper with that rare combination of power and quickness that can
give even the best fits on a daily basis. Favors also possesses a 7-footer's
wingspan, and figures to turn into a top-tier shot-blocker early in his NBA
career. Like most young players, Favors lacks a go-to move on the blocks and
relies too much on his athleticism, but that's the nature of the beast these
days.
Lawal is a junior with a relentless work ethic. He also has the 7-foot
wingspan along with an NBA-body and solid athletic skills, but Lawal will beat
you with conditioning. Like a big-time NFL defensive end, the Georgia native
has a non-stop motor and runs the floor extremely hard on a consistent basis.
Kansas is a No. 1 seed for a reason and could have three first round
selections is this year's draft. Freshman shooting guard Xavier Henry has the
biggest upside and could be gone in the top 10. At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds,
unlike most freshmen, Henry is physically ready. He's a naturally gifted
scorer that gets his shot effortlessly but lacks the foot speed to be a true
superstar.
Junior Cole Aldrich is the premiere center in the country and is as
fundamentally sound a player as you will find in college. He may not have the
athletic skills that wow NBA scouts but he's improved every year and could
certainly be a late lottery pick.
Meanwhile, senior point guard Sherron Collins figures to be a late first-round
selection. Collins is only 5-foot-11 and thinks shot first, but as a 15- or 20-
minutes-a-night backup, he has value. In fact, if Collins proves he can keep
people in front of him defensively, he could be a nice little role player on a
championship-level club.
Right behind Wall in most mock drafts is Ohio State superstar Evan Turner, a
6-foot-7 combo guard that is silky smooth with a great feel for the game.
Offensively, Turner reminds me a lot of Portland Trail Blazers star Brandon
Roy. He's not the freakish athlete that Wall is, but has the length to give
people fits on the wing.
Syracuse junior forward Wesley Johnson rounds out the top three as far as NBA
projections go. The prototypical athletic small forward, Johnson actually has
a monster mid-range game, something that is usually lost in the three-point-
driven college game.
If you are looking for role players that could be steals in the second round,
I like Washington forward Quincy Pondexter, Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez and
Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody.
Pondexter is slight but he seems to understand the game and has a feel for his
own strength and weaknesses, an underrated trait. Few players have the
basketball IQ to stay away from things that hurt them.
At 6-foot-6, you have to like Vasquez's size and he plays with great
intensity. Of course, that same intensity means Vasquez will play out of
control at times, and his decision making suffers. If a coach can harness that,
he might have something in the Maryland senior.
Harangody is 6-foot-7, 245-pound plodding power forward. He lacks athleticism,
explosiveness and height but dominated the toughest conference in all of
college basketball for three years. In short, Harangody knows how to play the
game, and there will always be room for a guy like that.
<< NBA board approves sale of Bobcats to Jordan
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA Board of Governors made it official
on Wednesday by unanimously approving Michael Jordan's acquisition of a
controlling interest of the Charlotte Bobcats.
Jordan and MJ Basketball Holdings,
<< Van Bommel inks Bayern extension
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich captain Mark van Bommel has
agreed to a contract extension that will keep him at the club through the end
of next season.
Van Bommel's contract was set to expire at the end of the curren
<< Diamondbacks sign P Benson to minor league deal
Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed veteran
pitcher Kris Benson to a minor league contract, the team announced Wednesday.
The 35-year-old appeared in eight games (two starts) in 2009 with the Texas
Range
<< Report: Seton Hall fires hoops coach Gonzalez
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seton Hall has reportedly fired head men's
basketball coach Bobby Gonzalez.
The Star-Ledger reported that on Wednesday, the school forced out Gonzalez,
who was in his fourth season with the team. The
<< Kiessling commits future to Leverkusen
Leverkusen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayer Leverkusen have secured the
future of Germany international Stefan Kiessling until the summer of 2015 with
a new contract.
Kiessling has been rewarded with a new long-term deal on the back
NASCAR's March Madness begins with Bristol >>
Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, March
21. Race: Food City 500. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval.
Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 266.5. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch.
Television
Harvick looking for another win at Bristol >>
Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday,
March 20. Race: Scotts Turf Builder 300. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track:
.533-mile oval. Start time: 2:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 300. Miles: 159.9. 2009
winner: Kevin Harv
Eagles cut ties with OL Andrews >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles released
offensive lineman Shawn Andrews on Wednesday.
"We appreciate the efforts and contributions of Shawn while he was in
Philadelphia," said head coach Andy
Report: Rangers manager Washington tested positive for cocaine >>
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington
reportedly tested positive for cocaine during the 2009 season.
According to a report from SI.com, Washington failed the test last July, but
has passed all his t
Portland fires VP Penn >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers announced on
Wednesday that Vice President of Basketball Operations Tom Penn has been
relieved of his duties.
"We felt it was in the organization's best interest to
SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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