Yao can see the end of the line
Basketball Betting Lines
07/28/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Your average human being doesn't stand
7-foot-6 and weigh 310 pounds.
In basketball, size among the skilled is the holy grail -- the only thing you
can't teach. But, like anything else, there are pros and cons to having a
talented big man that looks down at the rest of us.
Nearly 15 months ago, the Houston Rockets were battling the Los Angeles Lakers
in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Yao Ming dominated, scoring 28
points, including eight in the final four minutes, to lift Houston to an
impressive 100-92 win.
Of course the Lakers responded, but their path to what would be the first of
back-to-back championships was made much easier when Yao was diagnosed with a
sprained ankle after Game 3 of that set.
A follow-up test revealed a hairline fracture in the big man's left foot, and
he was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. At the time, Yao
downplayed the injury and a conservative treatment plan was drawn up, calling
for him to cease all physical training and to use a walking boot in order to
immobilize the foot and promote healing.
The prognosis had the foot healing over the summer but the fracture failed to
respond and Yao underwent surgery, putting the playing career of the Rockets'
cornerstone in jeopardy.
For now, the Rockets are expecting Yao to be back for the 2010-11 campaign but
the seven-time All-Star caused quite a stir in his native China on Tuesday,
intimating he would in fact have to consider retiring if the foot fails to
recover.
"If the foot injury does not heal next season I might choose to call it
quits," Yao, who is entering the last year of his contract, said in an
interview with Chinese state media.
The big man had already indicated that his days playing for the Chinese
National team were probably behind him.
"The foot injury will not allow me to play so many games anymore," Yao said.
"Like I said before, I will quit the national team and the sport one day. It's
what happens to every athlete."
It's Yao's prodigious size that makes leg injuries a far more serious subject,
Other talented big men like Sam Bowie, Bill Walton and another former Rocket,
Ralph Sampson, had careers cut short by a seemingly never-ending series of leg
injuries. Meanwhile, current Portland pivot Greg Oden may be heading in a
similar direction.
Yao, an eight-year NBA veteran, has now had three different fractures of the
left foot and a hairline crack of the right leg. He has had five-consecutive
seasons interrupted or ended by some kind of injury.
The Shanghai native did return to the floor in late May and has been going
through full-contact workouts at Toyota Center, buoying the Rockets' spirits.
Meanwhile, Houston general manager Daryl Morey continues to indicate Yao is
indeed on pace to start training camp healthy and on time.
"Yao is on schedule to be available the first day of training camp," Morey
told a Houston newspaper on Tuesday. "He's continued to make positive strides
in his rehab work and all medical reports so far have been positive. He's been
working consistently four to five days a week, and we expect him to be there
when we open camp on September 25th."
A healthy Yao instantly turns the Rockets back into a Western Conference
contender. In fact, a starting lineup featuring the Chinese star along with
Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin projects as one of the
NBA's best.
But, projections are just that -- an estimate of future possibilities based on
current events that remain fluid.
And no projection to my knowledge has ever taken into account the doubt that
has crept into the mind of a 7-foot-6, oft-injured former All-Star.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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