Jayhawks and Longhorns duke it out in Austin
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/08/2010 -
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Big 12 heavyweights collide in Austin
this evening, as the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks take on the ninth-ranked Texas Longhorns from the Frank Erwin Center.
Bill Self's Jayhawks sit atop the Big 12 standings with a flawless 8-0 record.
The team has won 22 of its 23 games on the year and enters this tilt with an
eight-game win streak in tow, including Saturday's 75-64 win over Nebraska in
Lawrence. The victory extended the nation's longest homecourt winning streak
to 55 games.
The Longhorns looked like the team to beat in the Big 12 just a few weeks ago,
but they have hit a wall of late, losing four of their last six games,
including an 80-71 setback at Oklahoma on Saturday. With the loss, Texas fell
to 5-3 in league play.
These are the two winningest programs in conference play since the inception
of the Big 12, with Kansas posting a league-best 180 league wins and Texas
ranking second with 150. This is the 23rd all-time meeting between these two
teams, with Kansas holding a 16-6 series advantage, including wins in each of
the last two meetings.
The Jayhawks forced Nebraska into 19 turnovers and shot an efficient .481 from
the floor, marking the team's 55th consecutive win at the Allen Fieldhouse.
Marcus Morris led the way with his fourth double-double this season, finishing
with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Sherron Collins added 17 points and six
assists for Kansas, which remained unbeaten in league play. The Jayhawks have
been able to rack up the victories thanks to stellar play at both ends of the
floor. The team boasts of an impressive +21.0 scoring margin (leads the
nation), averaging 83.7 ppg, while allowing just 62.7. KU has certainly been
efficient shooting the ball, converting 49.3 percent from the floor, with four
players currently averaging double figures. It starts with Collins, an All-
American candidate with the ability to create for himself (15.6 ppg) and
others (team-high 98 assists). Morris, a sophomore, and Xavier Henry, a
freshman, are next at 13.0 ppg, while junior Cole Aldrich (11.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg)
rounds things out with his dominant play inside.
The Longhorns are definitely capable of hanging with Kansas at the offensive
end, as Texas comes into this week averaging a steady 84.1 ppg on 48-percent
efficiency from the field. The key to this game may be the battle inside
between KU's Aldrich and UT's standout Damion James. The Big 12's all-time
leading rebounder, James is a force down low, averaging a double-double with
team-highs of 17.8 points (sixth in the league) and 11.0 rebounds per game
(leads the league). The 6-7 senior gets perimeter support from Avery Bradley
(12.5 ppg), J'Covan Brown (9.4 ppg) and Jordan Hamilton (9.3 ppg), while big
man Dexter Pittman (11.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, team-high 48 blocks) helps out in the
paint. Texas was its own worst enemy in Norman this past weekend, as the team
shot just .417 from the floor and a miserable 10-of-27 from the free-throw
line (.370) in a nine-point loss to the Sooners. Bradley did his best to keep
the Longhorns in it, finishing with 21 points. James just missed a double-
double with 12 points and nine rebounds, while Gary Johnson did complete the
feat, coming off the bench with 11 points and 10 boards. Pittman tallied eight
points and grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds in the loss.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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