Blackhawks aim to end West semis in Game 5 vs. Canucks
Hockey Betting Lines
05/09/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks will try to clinch their second
straight trip to the Western Conference finals tonight, when they host the
Vancouver Canucks for Game 5 of the conference semifinals at United Center.
The second-seeded Blackhawks have won three straight since dropping the opener
of this best-of-seven series and outscored the Canucks by a combined 12-6
margin while taking both Games 3 and 4 in Vancouver.
In fact, since losing Game 1 by a 5-1 count, Chicago has doubled the Canucks'
offensive output, outscoring Vancouver by a 16-8 margin.
The Blackhawks won a wild one in Friday's Game 4 matchup at General Motors
Place, as Jonathan Toews scored three power-play goals to record his first
career playoff hat trick in Chicago's 7-4 triumph.
Toews added two assists to tie a Blackhawks playoff record for points in a
game, joining Stan Mikita (1973) and Steve Larmer (1990). The Chicago captain
followed up a three-goal effort by Dustin Byfuglien on Wednesday. They are the
first set of Blackhawks teammates to post hat tricks in consecutive playoff
games since Tony Amonte and Gary Suter did so on April 23-24, 1994, against
Toronto.
"It was one of those nights where you get some chances, throw it on net and it
happens to go in. It's nice for your confidence," Toews said.
Patrick Sharp registered a goal and three assists for the Blackhawks, while
Antti Niemi made 26 saves in the win.
"We came in here and won both games, which is a huge plus," said Chicago head
coach Joel Quenneville. "You got a lot of momentum and want to go home and try
to take advantage of it. But we know we've got to be smart, we've got to be
disciplined. We should be excited about (heading) back home."
The Blackhawks are now just one victory away from a return trip to the
conference finals. Chicago, which lost in five games to Detroit a year ago,
hasn't appeared in consecutive conference finals since 1989 and '90.
Vancouver, meanwhile, is just one loss away from suffering the same fate it
did last spring, when the Blackhawks ousted the Canucks in six games during
the conference semifinals. The Canucks are 0-4 in the second round of the
playoffs since last reaching the conference finals in 1994, when they
eventually lost to the New York Rangers in a seven-game battle for the Stanley
Cup.
Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin both scored a goal and collected one assist for
the Canucks on Friday, while Roberto Luongo was beaten six times on 33 shots.
"We didn't react well to what was (happening) on the ice and they made us pay
for it," said Vancouver head coach Alain Vigneault.
Luongo, the backstop for gold medal-winning Team Canada at the 2010 Olympics,
has struggled through another disappointing postseason. Luongo is 5-5 with a
3.27 goals-against average and .892 save percentage in these playoffs and has
surrendered 11 goals on the last 68 shots he has faced.
Luongo's struggles have been magnified by Vancouver's undisciplined play in
this series. The Canucks gave Chicago eight opportunities with the man
advantage on Friday and the Blackhawks scored four times. Vancouver came apart
in the second period, taking four penalties in a span of 4 minutes, 40
seconds.
"There's no explanation. We lost our composure again," Luongo told his team's
official website. "I don't know why it happened, we talked about it, we were
all on the same page before the game started and I don't know, one thing led
to another and we lost our composure again in the second period there."
After scoring just once on their first eight power-play opportunities of this
series, the Blackhawks have notched six scores on their last 14 chances with
the man advantage.
"We're not getting the kills we need," said Henrik Sedin. "Other than that,
we're close. We have to be stronger mentally."
Vancouver is 3-4 all-time in best-of-seven series when trailing three games to
one. The last time the Canucks overcame a 3-1 deficit to win a series was
against St. Louis in the opening round of the 2003 playoffs.
The Blackhawks are 13-0 all-time when winning three of the first four games of
a postseason series.
The third-seeded Canucks are 3-2 on the road in the playoffs after posting a
19-20-2 away record during the regular season. Chicago is 3-2 on home ice this
postseason and went 29-8-4 as the host during the 2009-10 campaign.
If necessary, Game 6 of this series will take place Tuesday in Vancouver.
This marks the fourth time the Canucks and Blackhawks have battled in the
postseason. Vancouver's only series victory over Chicago was in the 1982
conference finals, when the Canucks ousted the Blackhawks in five games
before getting swept by the New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup Finals.
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On Saturday, Ben Sheets tossed 6 1/3
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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