Argos & Roughriders: High-stacked and ready for Sunday's Draft
Football Betting Lines
04/30/2010 -
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto fans better hope Jim Barker plays
poker as well as he coaches, because he's holding a stacked hand as his
Argonauts prepare for Sunday's Canadian Football League draft.
The Argos, who own the No. 1 overall pick, are in a position of power with
three picks inside the top 11.
But for Barker, the team's new head coach, deciding how to use those chips
will prove to be no easy task.
Several of Canada's top university prospects have either signed NFL contracts,
are attending mini-camps this week or have another year of NCAA eligibility
left, leaving teams to weigh the merits of drafting for now versus the future.
Either way, it promises to be an intriguing draft, as many pundits have
suggested this year's Canadian talent pool is among the deepest it's been in
recent memory.
The Argos won't be the only team flexing their muscles, as the Saskatchewan
Roughriders and B.C. Lions each have two picks within the top 10, giving the
three teams seven of the first 11 picks on Sunday.
With that in mind, a look at each team's needs and how they might go about
addressing them.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
If Barker were given the task of assembling his team at the grocery store, his
cart would be wheeling its way through every aisle. The Argos finished a
league-worst 3-15 last year, en route to missing the playoffs for a second
straight year.
In addition to holding the top pick, Toronto picks eight, 11 and six more
times during the six-round, eight-team draft. How they use the No. 1 pick will
likely dictate what direction other teams follow.
Toronto was horrible on both sides of the ball in 2009, "boasting" the lowest-
scoring offense while surrendering the second-most points in the league. But
after allowing a league-high 55 sacks last season, Toronto's most pressing
need is an offensive lineman.
There's where the mystery begins.
The top o-lineman, according to the league's Scouting Bureau, is John Bender,
a six-foot-eight, 325-pound monster from Nevada who many expect will return
for another year in college.
If he, or No. 4 ranked Danny Watkins of Baylor - who is also expected to
return to school this fall - were committed to playing in the CFL in 2010, the
Argos would likely go with either one.
But it would make sense, instead, for Toronto to take either Washington
State's Joe Eppele - the draft's only NCAA o-lineman coming out of school - or
the top-ranked prospect from Queen's Golden Gaels, Shomari Williams.
Williams is a six-foot-two, 236-pound linebacker who led the Gaels to a Vanier
Cup last year, the top prize in Canadian college football, through his
explosive and versatile abilities on the defensive end.
Picking the best player available - and in this case, stressing the word
"available" - is always a safe bet.
By grabbing Williams at No. 1, the Argos would also be preventing Saskatchewan
from getting one of the defensive players they covet.
Using such logic, the Argos could then hope Eppele falls to eight, which is
possible but unlikely given his availability, and use their 11th pick on
Bender, Watkins or the Waterloo Warriors' Joel Reinders, who recently signed a
deal with the Cleveland Browns, as a future top prospect.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDGERS
The Roughriders also hold trump cards, as they posses the number two and four
picks in the first round. Not bad for a team that lost to the Montreal
Alouettes by one point in last year's Grey Cup.
Many observers suggest the Roughriders will look to nab a linebacker with one
of their first two picks - possibly both - and have their sights set on
Williams or the 2009 Canadian Interuniversity Sport's (CIS) top defender,
Concordia's Cory Greenwood.
Greenwood is an exceptional athlete who could offer help on special teams as
well, something the Roughriders have been known to value.
With the benefit of having a playoff-caliber team and high picks in the draft,
it wouldn't be a surprise to see Saskatchewan use one of its early picks on
the future, and leave its two fifth-round picks to shore up on more immediate
needs.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
B.C., along with Toronto, has the most picks in this year's draft with nine,
including four in the top 18. It would be shocking if the Lions don't pick
Williams or Greenwood, should one of them not go one or two, at No. 3.
In keeping with the o-line trend - which is exceptionally deep given the
amount of players potentially NFL-bound - coach Wally Buono could decide to
grab one of the aforementioned big men at No. 10. Such a move would leave the
door open for B.C. to get a top-ranked wide receiver at 16.
Bishop's teammates Shawn Gore and Steven Turner - both terrific athletes who
performed well at the CFL evaluation camp - along with Regina's Jordan Sisco,
are among the more highly regarded receivers in this year's class and although
all three are seeking jobs south of the border, the Lions should grab one of
them.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS
The Stampeders are well stocked for the draft, with picks spread across the
board at five, 13, 17, 21, 37, and 46.
As the top-ranked defense in the West, expect Calgary to address needs at both
kicker and on the offensive line. At No. 5, the Stamps will likely chose
between the draft's top kicker Rob Maver of Guelph or Eppele if he is still
there.
Manitoba's speedy defensive tackle Eddie Steele remains a strong play at 13 if
he's around.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
Winnipeg has just four picks, but will have the benefit of drafting the sixth
player off the board.
The Blue Bombers, who at 7-11 were among the league's worst offensively and
defensively, don't have the luxury of taking too big a gamble on the U.S.
guys, so look for them to grab a top receiver (Gore or Sisco) or one of the
linebackers still available (Greenwood or Montreal's Joash Gesse).
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The defending Grey Cup champs are the most complete team in the league, yet,
with seven picks in the draft, have a great opportunity to add some quality
non-import talent.
Given their roster, the Alouettes will be able to take some chances early with
three picks inside the top 15 (Nos. 7, 14, 15).
Look for the Alouettes to grab the best player off the board at seven (either
an offensive lineman or linebacker) and then use one their last two picks in
the second round on a flier. An interesting pick here could be Montreal-native
Gesse.
The five-foot-11, 221-pound truck of a linebacker, who played college football
in Montreal, is currently ranked 13th in the Bureau's rankings, and would
appear to be a nice fit for both sides should he fall to them.
EDMONTON ESKIMOS
General Manager Danny Maciocia has already shown his cards ahead of Sunday's
draft and with Nos. 9, 19, 22, 35, and 43, it would only make sense the
Eskimos pick the best player available to them.
Expect the Eskimos to take any of the big names off the board at nine, and
possibly roll the dice on a running back, given their recent injuries, in the
third round.
Sherbrooke's Pascal Fils, the top rusher in CIS football last year, could be a
sneaky play to add some depth on offense in the middle rounds.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Tiger-Cats, usually perched at the top thanks to years of mediocrity, will
be tamed on Sunday with just three picks - and none in the first round - after
improving to 9-9 following a disastrous 2008 that saw them go 3-15.
Much like the Eskimos, it will be in Hamilton's best interest to simply go
after the pick with the most value rather than focusing on specific needs.
However, should Maver fall to them at 12, the Ti-Cats will likely add depth to
one of their weaknesses and grab the punter/kicker.
If he's not there, Hamilton would be wise to add one of the premier defensive
linemen still on the board like Stanford's Brian Bulcke, a hulking six-foot-
four tackle or a top offensive guard such as the six-foot-five, 312-pound
J'Michael Deane of Michigan State, both of whom are returning to school this
fall.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
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